The first official estimates point to a South African harvest down compared to 2022, due in part to generally drier weather conditions this year.
Some parts of South Africa had a good season with excellent sanitary conditions, but below-average rainfall, hence the forecast for a lower harvest for 2023 - photo credit: Pixabay
n the first of its four harvest forecasts, South African trade body Vinpro, in collaboration with Sawis, estimates that production is expected to decline slightly next year compared to 2022. Based on feedback from wine advisors and producers, Vinpro points to a "healthy but dry" season. Conrad Schutte, head of the wine advisory team, explains: "At this very early stage, the expected net decrease is mainly attributed to all our vineyards that experienced a drier season, with the exception of the North Cape which experienced its own harsh environmental conditions during and after harvest. Poor flowering and fruit set in various regions, as well as grubbing-up, also contributed to the decrease in our estimate for the 2023 harvest."
While non-irrigated areas are necessarily the most impacted, those that practice intense irrigation – such as Klein Karoo and Robertson – have been affected by power supply problems. "Load shedding has caused enormous difficulties, forcing irrigation regimes to be modified according to electricity availability," notes Conrad Schutte, who also points out that, "if the season looks promising, many things can still change between now and the harvest".
Demand impacted by cost inflation
On the marketing side, South Africa has been able to take full advantage of the Sauvignon Blanc shortage in New Zealand to change its pricing and expand into new markets. "The prices of our Sauvignon Blancs have skyrocketed, although we have had to remain realistic," says Ben Jordann, director of operations at South Africa's Cape Wine Exporters, which markets 150,000 hl in bulk and 1.5 million cases of packaged wine. Welcoming the opportunity to "highlight the multiplicity of wine profiles we can offer", he acknowledges that this strong demand is beginning to run out of steam, under the dual effect of New Zealand's return and cost inflation.
« We feel that demand is still there, but there is a slowdown, mainly related to inflation. We had to increase our rates because of the increase in dry matter prices. Customers remain loyal to a brand, but up to a point." Like everywhere else, South Africa is experiencing the sharp rise in energy costs, "which have jumped 34% this year for a further 30% increase expected next year". Cape Wine Exporters' tariffs will therefore "probably increase by 5 to 10% to take into account these different issues".
